Mirabilissimo100’s Weblog

marzo 2, 2020


644 iscritti

Questa puntata riguarda le ultime novità nella sacca di Idlib. L’impegno turco a sostegno del terrorismo internazionale è arrivato all’apice e oggi ci sono azioni di guerra vera e propria. Tutto questo in Siria, nazione sovrana che non ha mai invitato la Turchia, né tantomeno ha desiderato essere invasa. Sono dunque giorni di grandi scontri, Stefano ci dirà cosa è successo nelle ultime ore. Buona visione


gennaio 25, 2020


Filed under: attack, SYRIA, TERRORIST, war — Tag:, , , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 7:49 am

Syrian Army Rips Through Militants’ Defense, Liberates Five More Towns In Southeast Idlib

25 01 2020

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued its advance in southeast Idlib, penetrating militants’ defenses and capturing several new towns in the late hours of January 24.

Pro-government sources said that the army captured the towns of Deir Gharbi, Tqana and Ma’ar Shimmareen following clashes with al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies. Syrian and Russian warplanes provided army troops with close air support.

On another direction, to the west of Abu Duhur Air Base, the army advanced, allegedly imposing control of the towns of Abu Jurif and Kursiyan.

A few hours ago, the SAA resumed its large-scale ground operation in southeast Idlib. In the first hours of the attack, the army captured Deir Sharqi.

HTS and its allies reportedly sustained heavy losses while attempting to stop army forces, which are spearheaded by the 25th Special Forces Division. The elite unit was previously known as the Tiger Forces.

Now, several local sources are reporting heavy clashes west of Aleppo’s city center. The SAA may kick off a ground operation in the region in the upcoming few days, if not hours.

More on this topic:



Filed under: attack, BATTLE, russia, SYRIA, TERRORIST, war — Tag:, , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 7:45 am

Russia, Syria Say Dozens Of Syrian Army Troops Killed, Wounded In Greater Idlib Clashes. What's Going On?

Illustrative image

The Russian and Syrian defense ministries released several reports about intense clashes between militants and the Syrian Army in southeastern Idlib and southwestern Aleppo.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is repelling a large-scale attack on its positions in the southeastern Idlib countryside, the Ministry of Defense of Syria claimed in an official statement released on January 23.

The ministry said that the attack, led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is targeting the towns of al-Tah, Abu Jurif and Samka.

“Through the use of various types of weapons, including vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs)، and under heavy fire cover, the terrorists managed to penetrate some positons of the army on the direction of al-Tah, Abu Hurif and Samka,” the statement reads.

According to the Syrian MoD, the SAA redeployed its troops to repel the terrorists’ attack. Heavy clashes are currently taking place in the region.

Russia, Syria Say Dozens Of Syrian Army Troops Killed, Wounded In Greater Idlib Clashes. What's Going On?

Earlier on the same day, the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria reported that about 600 militants attacked SAA positions on the contact line in Idlib and Aleppo provinces:

  • A group of up to 270 militants, supported by 38 armed pickups attacked Syrian Army positions near At-Tah, and Muaysirunah. A group of Wadi as-Saane in southeastern Idlib;
  • Up to 250 militants, supported by 2 BMP vehicles and 30 armed pickups attacked Syrian Army positions near Abu Dafn, Bars and Huan as-Shaf in southeastern Idlib;
  • Up to 50 militants, supported by 4 vehicles armed with weapons, attacked Syrian Army positions near Rashidin 4 and al-Jazirah near Aleppo city.

According to the Russian side, government forces eliminated up to 50 militants, and wounded up to 90 others. At the same time, nearly 40 Syrian troops were killed and up to 80 injured, the Center added.

Russia, Syria Say Dozens Of Syrian Army Troops Killed, Wounded In Greater Idlib Clashes. What's Going On?

On January 22, the Russian military reported that the Syrian Army repelled an attack by militants on its positions near At Tah in southeastern Idlib. According to the report, the attack involved at least 30 militants with 3 vehicles equipped with weapons.

In a separate report, the Russian Reconciliation Center said that 46 Syrian service members have been killed and 77 were wounded in recent clashes with radical militants in Greater Idlib in the period from January 16 to January 19. According to the report, 57 civilians were killed and 116 others were injured as a result of attacks and shelling by militants.

These reports were not confirmed by any pro-government or pro-opposition sources. They didn’t report any large ground attack on SAA positions during the last 48 hours. HTS and its allies launched dozens of attacks from the region in the last few days. However, somehow attacks involving hundreds of militants and tens pieces of military equipment went unnoticed. One of the explanations is that they did not happen.

The motives behind the Syrian and Russian claims remain unclear. The two countries may be preparing public opinion for a large-scale ground operation in Greater Idlib, that has been repeatedly forecasted by pro-government sources. At the same time, these reports could be a part of the media operation designed to draw the audience’s attention from some other developments.



gennaio 12, 2020


Filed under: attack, BATTLE, iran, iraq, SYRIA, TERRORIST, usa, war — Tag:, , , , , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 4:00 am

Summing Up Results Of Iranian Missile Strike On US Military Bases In Iraq

IMAGES by @farhad965
Photos show the remnants of Qiam missiles. They do not explode because the Qiam warhead separates from the airframe before atmospheric re-entry:
Summing Up Results Of Iranian Missile Strike On US Military Bases In Iraq
Summing Up Results Of Iranian Missile Strike On US Military Bases In Iraq
IMAGE: reddit.com/user/Bbrhuft/
Summing Up Results Of Iranian Missile Strike On US Military Bases In Iraq

The satellite images and the recently appeared video allow to suggest that aircraft tent shelters most likely were the main targets of the strike. 

So far, the appeared evidence does not allow to see any large missile craters. This contributes to the version that missile warheads’ payload was smaller than it could be.



9 01 2020



On January 9, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted missile strikes on the US-operated Ayn al-Assad airbase and the US military HQ in Erbil city in Iraq.

Depending on sources the IRGC launched from 10 to 22 missiles:

  • According to the IRGC, over 10 missiles were launched and all of them hit the assigned targets. Iranian state television claimed that at least 80 “American terrorists” were killed in Iranian strikes. This number of casualties has not confirmed by any evidience;
  • The Iraqi military said that 22 missiles were launched. 17 of them hit the Ain al-Asad air base, including 2 missiles that did not explode, and 5 missiles hit the US facility in the city of Erbil. Iraq denied any casualties among its forces;
  • The US military said that 10 missiles hit the Ayn al-Assad airbase, a misile struck the US facility in Erbil and 4 missiles failed. The Pentagon, and later US President Donald Trump, denied any casualties among US or Iraqi personnel.
  • The available infomration indicates that there really were no casualties among US and Iraqi personnel, while the Iranian missiles successfully struck their targets. The advanced warning of the Iraqi side (that intentionally or unintentionally informed the US) by Iran is among the main reasons of this result. Therefore, the Iranian strike was not intended to lead to casualties among US or Iraqi personnel deployed at these bases. The pattern of damage caused to the Ayn al-Assad airbase also allows to suggest the missile warheads’ payload was much smaller than it could be. In this case, the strike was first of all a strong military (!) message to the US military and political leadership.

Iran’s semi-official Tashim news agency citing own sources said the IRGC employed Qiam (the range – 800km) and Fateh-313 (the range – 500 km) short-range ballistic missiles. However, photos and videos appearing oline demonstrate a bit different picture. According to them, that the IRGC in fact employed Qiam and Zolfaghar (the range – up to 800km) missiles.

Open data suggests that the missile launches were made from Iran’s Kirmasan province. One of the largest Iranian missile bases is located  near Kirmasan city.

The Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) is a variant of the Fateh-110 SRBM family. It was developed as a part of the campaign to improve the range and accuracy of the existing missiles. The Zolfaghar reportedly has a range of 800km. Iranian media reports claim that the Zolfaghar’s accuracy is within 10 meters

While the Iranian strike apparently caused no casualties, the IRGC publicly demonstrated that they can peneterate US air defense using its domestic-produced ballistic missiles and electronic warfare systems (mostly Russian).

Satellite images and visual evidence from the ground demonstrate that the strike was preceise and caused a visible impact to the Ayn al-Assad airbase. The close grouping of destroyed targets serves as a visual demonstration of the accuracy of the Iranian missiles.

The satellite images and the recently appeared video allow to suggest that aircraft tent shelters most likely were the main targets of the strike. So far, the appeared evidence does not allow to see any large missile craters. This contributes to the version that missile warheads’ payload was smaller than it could be.

The January 8 nation adress by President Donald Trump confirms that the US received and understood the message: Iran is capable of striking any US military facility anywhere around the Middle East and this strike will be effective. Therefore, the  Trump administration did not risk with a new war, declared the Iranian missile strike on its military bases a ‘success’ and limited the response to new sanctions and loud rhetoric about Iran-backed ‘terrorism’.

The question is how the US will react to a further pressure from local forces in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. The US assassination of Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani, the Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the second-in-command of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units, and other prominent Iraqi and Iranian officers led to a very negative reaction from the local population in Iraq. This negative already led to several rocket strikes on the area of the US Embassy in Baghdad. The most recent of these strikes followed Trump’s ‘peaceful’ nation adress on the situation with Iran.



CNN VIDEO OF U.S AIRBASE RUINS: Iran Entirely Destroys Airbase – ‘Unimaginable Damage!’

Filed under: attack, BATTLE, iran, iraq, SYRIA, TERRORIST, usa, war — Tag:, , , , , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 3:53 am

Summing Up Results Of Iranian Missile Strike On US Military Bases In Iraq
Al-Asad airbase Usa base in Iraq
11 01 2020
CNN VIDEO OF U.S AIRBASE RUINS: Iran Entirely Destroys Airbase – ‘Unimaginable Damage!’

In an exclusive report from the al-Asad airbase where the US soldiers were based in Iraq, CNN described the extent of the damage to the base as unimaginable.

The hosts exclaims incredulity that no U.S servicemen were injured. FRN previously ran video appearing to demonstrate that U.S soldiers were at the base.

Iranian domestic media reported between a dozen to eighty killed and injured U.S solders.

The U.S anti-air defenses were entirely useless against the Iranian missiles. 100% of the launched missiles penetrated U.S defenses, with high accuracy.

This demonstration of force and the U.S inability to stop these next-generation Iranian missiles may serve well for western audiences, inculcated from early childhood into believing the mythology of an invincible U.S.




CNN describes US airbase damages by Iran missile attack as terrifying


gennaio 3, 2020

Iran Leader vows ‘harsh revenge’ following assassination of Gen. Soleimani

Filed under: attack, iran, iraq, POLITCS, SYRIA, TERRORIST, war — Tag:, , , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 10:45 pm

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei speaks to IRGC Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani in this file photo.
0 3 JANUARY 2020

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says those who assassinated IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani must await a harsh revenge. 

In a statement on Friday, Ayatollah Khamenei said the “cruelest people on earth” assassinated the “honorable” commander who “courageously fought for years against the evils and bandits of the world.”

His demise will not stop his mission, but the criminals who have the blood of General Soleimani and other martyrs of the Thursday night attack on their hands must await a harsh revenge, the Leader added.

“Martyr Soleimani is an international figure of the Resistance, and all the devotees of Resistance are now his avengers,” Ayatollah Khamenei said. 

“All the friends and foes must know that the path of Jihad of the Resistance will continue with double motivation, and a definite victory awaits those who fight in this auspicious path,” the Leader said.

“The demise of our selfless and dear general is bitter, but the continued fight and achievement of the final victory will make life bitterer for the murderers and criminals,” he added.

In his statement, the Leader also offered condolences to the Iranian nation and General Soleimani’s family, and declared three days of national mourning.

What follows is the full text of the Leader’s statement:

In the Name of God

Dear nation of Iran!

The great and honorable commander of Islam became heavenly. Last night, the untainted souls of the martyrs embraced the pure soul of Qassem Soleimani. After years of sincere and courageous fight against the devils and evil-doers of the world and after years of wishing for martyrdom in the path of God, alas, dear Soleimani attained this lofty position and his pure blood was spilled by the vilest of human beings.  

I congratulate Hazrat Baqiyatullah- may our souls be sacrificed for him- and his [Soleimani’s] own pure soul on this great martyrdom and I express my condolences to the Iranian nation.

He was a stellar example of those educated and nurtured in Islam and the school of Imam Khomeini (RA). He spent his entire life fighting in the path of God.

Martyrdom was his reward for years of implacable efforts. With his departure and with God’s power, his work and path will not cease and harsh revenge awaits those criminals who have tainted their filthy hands with his blood and the blood of the other martyrs of last night’s incident.

Martyr Soleimani is the international face of the resistance, and all who have a heart-felt connection to the resistance seek revenge for his blood.

All friends – and also all foes – should know that the path of fight and resistance continues with increased motivation and certain victory awaits the fighters on this blessed path.

The absence of our dear and self-sacrificing commander is bitter, but the continuation of the resistance and its final victory will be bitterer for the murderers and criminals.

The Iranian nation will cherish the name and memory of the towering martyr, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, together with his fellow martyrs especially the great fighter of Islam the honorable Mr. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. I declare three days of public mourning in the country and I congratulate and express my condolences to his honorable wife, dear children and family.

Later in the day, the IRGC spokesman General Ramezan Sharif warned that the US’ “momentary pleasure” after assassinating General Soleimani will be short-lived, and will soon turn into lamentation.

He also said the IRGC is going to open a new chapter from now on and the front of resistance is going to set out a new starting point.

‘Iran more determined now’

Following the Leader’s remarks, President Hassan Rouhani strongly condemned the attack, and said the US assassination will make Iran and other free nations more determined to stand against Washington.

“The martyrdom of the great commander of Islam and Iran, and the courageous commander of the Quds Force, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, along with some of his companions especially the great fighter Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, by the aggressive and criminal US broke the heart of the entire nation of Iran and regional nations,” President Rouhani said in a Friday statement.

The assassination “doubled the determination of the great nation of Iran and other free nations to stand against and resist the excessive demands of the US and to defend the Islamic values,” he added.

“There is no doubt that this cowardly and evil move is another sign of the US’ desperation, inability and failure in the region, and the hatred felt by the regional nations toward this criminal regime,” Rouhani noted.

“The great nation of Iran and other free nations of the region will take revenge for this heinous crime against the criminal US,” he warned.

Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami also vowed that revenge will be taken against all those behind the assassination.

“Undoubtedly, this heinous crime which is a strong proof of the evil nature of the Big Satan, the arrogant US and it’s all-out support for terrorism in the region and Iraq, will be responded to in a crushing way,” the defense minister warned.

Earlier, former commander of the IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaei also vowed a harsh revenge against the perpetrators.

Details of the attack

Speaking to Iran’s state TV, the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad Iraj Masjedi explained that the US’ missile attacks hit two cars transferring General Soleimani, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and 10 companions and bodyguards from Baghdad Airport to the city at 1 am (local time).

According to Masjedi, all the passengers have been killed, and arrangements are being made for their return to the Islamic Republic of Iran.



Who was General Qassem Soleimani?

Filed under: attack, iran, iraq, POLITCS, SYRIA, TERRORIST, war — Tag:, , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 10:40 pm

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)

File photo showing Major General Qassem Soleimani. (Image via Farsnews)
03 JANUARY 2020

Major General Qassem Soleimani, whose assassination by the US was confirmed earlier on Friday, had played a major role in defending Iran against its enemies and assisting regional countries fight foreign occupation and terrorism.

Soleimani, born in 1957, started his military career by joining the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) following the victory of the Islamic revolution in 1979.

During the imposed Iraqi war on Iran, which was launched in 1980 and lasted for eight years, Soleimani gradually became known as an adept commander, leading Iranian troops in numerous battles against invading Ba’ath regime forces.

Later appointed as the chief of the IRGC’s expeditionary Quds Force, Soleimani gradually became a forefront figure in Iran’s push to assist regional states and allies counter foreign-backed interventions in the region.

As foreign-backed Takfiri outfits reared their heads in recent years, the IRGC commander emerged as a key strategist and ingenious commander leading Iranian military advisers assisting Syrian and Iraqi troops in battles against terrorists.

The general was frequently pictured on the frontlines during anti-terrorism operations from Iraq’s Mosul to Syria’s Aleppo.

In Iraq, at the height of Daesh’s terror campaign, he assisted the Baghdad government in operations to retake the strategic oil-rich city of Tikrit from Daesh in 2015.

In January 2015, the head of Iraq’s Badr Organization credited Tehran and Soleimani with saving Baghdad when Daesh first unleashed its campaign of terror in the neighboring country a year earlier.

The general also took personal command of the battle against Takfiri militants in the Syrian city of Bukamal, located in Dayr al-Zawr Province, in November 2017.

In November 2017, Soleimani declared the end of Daesh’s territorial rule in a letter addressed to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Earlier this year, the Leader awarded Soleimani with Iran’s highest military order, the Order of Zulfaqar.

Hailed both by the enemies and foes as a major military tactician, General Soleimani topped Foreign Policy (FP)’s 2019 list of Global Thinkers in defense and security.

Several reports emerged about assassination plots against the commander by the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia– which are believed to be among the major supporters of Takfiri terrorists wreaking havoc on the Middle East.

On Thursday, however, the Trump administration openly claimed responsibility for assassinating Soleimani. 

In a statement on Friday, Iran’s leader vowed “harsh revenge” for the perpetrators of the attack.

The Leader also offered condolences to the Iranian nation and General Soleimani’s family, and declared three days of national mourning.



novembre 21, 2019

Syria In Last 48 Hours: Security Forces Clash With ISIS Terrorists In Hama, US Sends Troops To Qamishli

Filed under: SYRIA, TERRORIST, war — Tag:, , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 7:50 pm


NOV 20 2019
DAMASCUS – Syrian security forces clashed with the ISIS terrorists in the eastern parts of Hama province, killing and wounding several militants.
“The ISIS terrorists attacked the Syrian security forces who were patrolling near the village of al-Ayour in Hama province and clashes erupted between them,” the Arabic-language website of Russian Sputnik news agency quoted local sources as saying on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army continued its military advances in other parts of Syria over past 24 hours. Tens of terrorists were killed and dozens more were injured during the Syrian army’s operations in provinces across Syria.


The Arabic-language website of Sputnik news agency reported on Sunday that the ISIS terrorists attacked the Syrian security forces who were patrolling near the village of al-Ayour in Hama province and clashes erupted between them.

A terrorist was killed and several others were wounded, the report said, adding that 4 Syrian security forces were also wounded. A source in the Syrian army said that the army forces, supported by helicopters, rushed to the region of clashes after hearing the sound of clashes.

The Syrian army has in the past 8 years been fighting against the terrorist groups, especially ISIS. It has managed to free most parts of the country from the terrorists’ hands.


The US military dispatched a large number of military and logistical equipment to Qamishli in Hasaka province in northeastern Syria. The Arabic-language al-Nashrah news website reported that the equipment was carried by the US trucks and arrived in Qamishli via the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

While Washington claims that its attempts to send military equipment to northern Syria is in the line with its alleged anti-terror campaign in Syria, analysts see it no more than an excuse to impose control over Syria’s oil revenues, reminding that the US was well informed of the hazards of ISIS’ revival when it abandoned the Kurdish militants and paved the ground for Ankara to conduct its long-waited military incursion into northern Syria.



Moscow, Ankara Agree On Turkish Forces’ Withdrawal From Tal Tamr In Syria

Filed under: SYRIA, war — Tag:, , , , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 7:45 pm
Risultati immagini per tal tamr in syria
NOV 20 2019
DAMASCUS – The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that Turkey and Syria have agreed on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Tal Tamr in Hasaka and the international M4 road. An SDF commander, who called for anonymity, told the Arabic-language al-Watan newspaper that the agreement took the initiative from Washington on regions where the Syrian army is deployed.

Based on the agreement, all sides should leave Tal Tamr in a way that the Turkish army and affiliated militants will leave the region towards Ras al-Ein and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will be stationed near the village of al-Soudeh between Tal Tamr and Ras al-Ein to pave the ground for the Syrian army’s control over the region.

The Kurdish source said that the agreement will be implemented within two days after stopping clashes near Tal Tamar based on which the Turkish forces should leave the villages under their control in northern Tal Tamr.

Earlier this month, the Syrian Army reinforced its military positions in the northern and northeastern countryside of Hasaka, including Tal Tamr, in order to confront any possible aggression by Turkish occupying forces and also to protect locals from the attacks by Ankara troops.

In Tal Tamr, the army units fortified their military positions to confront Turkish Army attacks as other army units boosted their positions in an area extending 60 kilometers from the village of al-Aghibish (west of Tal Tamr) to al-Wasitah village south of Aliyah silos.

The Syrian Arab Army units strengthened their positions in Um al-Kaif village, which is northwest of Tal Tamr and Khashm Zarkan village, which is north of the town, as well as in the village of Mjeibert Zarkan in the northeastern part on the Tal Tamr-Qamishli Road, along with field sources in the northern and northeastern part of Tal Tamr, Arab-language media outlets stated.





Filed under: attack, SYRIA, war — Tag:, , , , , — mirabilissimo100 @ 7:41 pm

Death Trap For Russia In Northern Syria

A Russian soldier gestures during a patrol near the Syrian and Turkish border in north Syria on Friday. Oct. 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)
 November 20 2019

On November 18, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey will launch a new military operation in northeast Syria if the area was not cleared of what he called terrorists.

Cavusoglu claimed that the United States and Russia had not done what was required under agreements that halted a Turkish offensive against “terrorists” (i.e. Kurdish armed groups – the YPG and the PKK) in northern Syria. Under the Turkish-US and Turkish-Russian agreements Kurdish units had to remove from the area near the Turkish border.

“If we do not obtain a result, we will do what is necessary, just as we launched the operation after trying with the U.S.,” Cavusoglu said, referring to work with the US to remove the YPG from the area before Turkey launched its Operation Peace Spring on October 9.

Tuurkey sees the YPG, the main component of the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control the northeastern part of Syria, as a terrorist group with links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party that involved in a long-standing rebellion against the Turkish state.

The statement of the Turkish foreign minister came following a new attakc on a joint Russian-Turkish patrol in northeastern Syria by YPG-affilated radicals. YPG supporters threw petrol bombs at Russian and Turkish vehicles.

On November 19, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov commented on Cavusoglu’s statement describing it as surprising.

“The Russian Defense Ministry was surprised to hear Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s statement about Russia’s alleged failure to fulfill its promises, as well as his threats about an operation in northern Syria,” Konashenkov said. “The Turkish top diplomat’s statement calling for military activities may raise tensions in Syria’s north instead of easing them in accordance with a joint memorandum signed by the presidents of Russia and Turkey.“

The surprise of the Russian Defense Ministry towards the statement of the Turkish foreign minister is surprising itself. Ankara has been providing a consistent foreign policy towards Kurdish issues and Syria as a state. The November 18 statement goes fully in accordance with this course.

It should be noted that the Turkish leadership has never seen Russia as a long-term partner. Rather, Ankara sees Moscow as a situational ally and aims to exploit the gullibility of this ally to achieve own goals.

The Turkish foreign course is an apparent demonstration that Ankara is not seeking to make ‘friendship’ with other regional and global actors. Turkey’s foreign policy is mobile and variable. However, it is always designed to defend interests of Turkey as a regional leader and the key state of the Turkic world.

Cavusoglu’s statement hint at a new shift of the Turkish foreign policy, which may undermine the Russian influence in northern Syria.

By November 19, Turkish and Russian forces had conducted at least 8 joint patrols in the framework of the reached ‘safe zone’ agreement. Most of them, excluding the very first ones, were marked by attacks and provocations carried out by YPG-affiliated Kurdish radicals. Initially, pro-YPG rioters threw stones. Then, they blocked patrols and attack vehicles. Recently, they started using petrol bombs. What’s next? Anti-tank guided missile strikes?

By these provocations, the Kurdish leadership are testing red lines of the Russians that are the main factor that limits Turkish response to such actions. Attacks on Russian vehicles also demonstrate that at least a part of the local Kurdish population sees the Russian military presence as hostile. The main reason is Moscow’s open and active cooperation with Ankara in the region.

The developments of the last weeks demonstrate that Turkey launched its Operation Peace Spring in northeastern Syria in de-facto coordination with Iran and Russia. The Turkish offensive was also un-publicly supported by the Trump administration. After the end of the operation under the US-Turkish and Russian-Turkish deals, the region of northeastern Syria had all chances to move towards a further stabilization.

The full implementation of steps agreed by Ankara and Moscow in the framework of the safe zone agreement will bring a long-awaited peace to the territory of northeastern Syria in the next 1-2 years. Nonetheless, the Turkish leadership is not interested in this. The Erdogan government needs the “Kurdish threat” and the instability in northern Syria to have a wide group of formal pretexts for a further expansion into the neighboring country and backing of pro-Turkish groups operating there. Turkey is interested in a peace on its own territory. At the same time, it prefers a low intensity conflict in the ‘instability zone’ in northern Syria.

If Ankara successfully plays Russia in its northeastern Syria ‘safe zone’ game, it will achieve the following goals:

  • To discredit Russia and its personnel in the eyes of the Kurdish population;
  • To undermine Russia’s political position in this part of Syria;
  • To indirectly demonstrate the fallacy of the Russian initiatives in northern Syria.

The further growth of tensions in the regions and continued attacks on Russian vehicles patrolling the area contribute to this scenario.

The Russian forces were deployed to the north as a part of Moscow’s wider effort to back the Assad government and support a broader political settlement of the conflict. Therefore, Russia has very limited interests there, but already faced notable obstracles (from the intractability of the Kurdish leadership to the shift of the Turksih policy).

In own turn, the Russian withdrawal from the border area as a result of some major security incident or a series of smaller ones will allow Turkey to continue pursuing its mid-term goals:

  • To keep under the control the “Kurdish threat”, which is being actively exploited by the Erdogan government in its domestic and foreign policies;
  • To seize key logistical routes, including the chunk of the M4 highway east of the Euphrates, in northern Syria. In some cases, Turkish forces may even push to capture some oil fields in the area;
  • To justify an increase of support to pro-Turkish groups in northeastern Syria and in the Idlib de-escalation zone.

By undermining the Turkish-Russian safe zone agreement and thus the Russian position in the region, the Kurdish leadership hopes to strengthen its negotiating position with Damascus and gain some additional political and financial revenue despite the collapse of its pro-US policies. Despite this, the wider look at the situation demonstrates that this approach is leading towards an even larger catastrophe. If the safe zone deal collapses and Turkish forces resume their offensive, the Kurdish population will get under the wheels of the Turkish military machine. A large part of the Kurds will be repressed or have to flee towards the US-occupied or Damascus-controlled areas. The US will keep control of the oil. Turkey will get the north. However, the Kurds will blame the Russians because they ‘did not protect them’.

According to some experts, the US is fully aware of this scenario and its intelligence services are now working to support YPG radicals that attack Turkish-Russian patrols because this gives Washington levers of influence to pressure forces of the Assad government and Russia on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.

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